Contest Announcement: The Results in Pennsylvania Today!!!

If this Democratic primary has proven anything it is that pollers and pundits don’t know anything. But since nature and pundits hate a vacuum, let’s try to figure out what will happen on Tuesday. I’ll give you my reasoning and then you put yours in the comments section.

First know that I support Sen. Obama. This could mean that I will be positive, optimistic and irrationally exuberant. Or it could mean that I’ll be trying to protect myself from disappointment by anticipating tragedy. Either could be true, but I will be honest—probably honestly wrong.

I think Obama loses tomorrow by more than 10%. The luster of purity beyond politics is off (and it had to come off) and he is no longer the transcendent candidate beyond both race and politics. While Sen. Clinton loses support by going negative, that hurts Obama too. But it hurts even more when he fights back and goes negative, though he must. He has become a mere mortal. Some of his most idealistic supporters will stay home.

The mud thrown on him late in this race will inevitably appear to stick for a while. The flag pin, the supporter with old far left connections and Rev. Wright. These questions and concerns will let some who were initially excited by the idea and image of Obama to vote for Sen. Clinton.

Finally, many of the so-called “undecideds” are in fact decided and just don’t want to admit that instinctively they can’t vote for a Black man with a Muslim name. They will fall 3 to 1 for Clinton. I see Clinton winning by close to 100,000 votes.

However, to hedge my bet some and explain, if I’m wrong, why I’m wrong: The polls do not reflect the young people, the students who use cell phones and therefore are not polled by most organizations. They are the great unknown. They are as yet uncounted, and I’m not counting on them.

Now it’s your turn.